On June 20, farmers held hybrid rice grains in the field in Jihangjia county, Bubanza province, Burundi. Xinhua News Agency reporter Han Xushe
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the global economic weakness, frequent regional conflicts, extreme weather events and other factors, global food prices have been rising all the way. According to FAO data, the global rice price has reached the highest level in 11 years since July, and there is a further upward trend. Many people are worried that the global food security crisis may intensify again.
The price of major grain has risen.
On July 17th, Russia announced that the validity of the agreement on the export of agricultural products in the Black Sea port was suspended, which aroused widespread concern in the international community.
Since the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022, the export of agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine via the Black Sea port has been disturbed. On July 22, 2022, under the mediation of Turkey and the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea port to ensure the smooth entry of grain and fertilizer from both sides into the international market. The agreement was extended three times in November 2022, March and May this year and expired on July 17.
The black sea grain transport agreement affects the grain imports of many countries. According to United Nations estimates, since it was signed in July 2022, the agreement has allowed more than 32 million tons of grain commodities to be exported from three ports in the Black Sea of Ukraine to 45 countries and regions. UN Secretary-General Guterres called the agreement the lifeline of global food security. When food production and supply were disturbed by geopolitical conflicts, climate change, energy prices and other factors, the agreement helped food prices drop by more than 20%.
This time, Russia refused to extend the agreement, which stirred up the global grain market. After the news was announced, the prices of major global grains such as corn, wheat and soybeans all rose to varying degrees. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement on the export of agricultural products in the Black Sea port may increase global food prices by 10% to 15%, and the organization said that it is still continuing to assess the situation.
At the same time, extreme weather and other factors are increasing the uncertainty of grain production. Affected by the El Niñ o phenomenon, Southeast Asia has experienced continuous high temperature and dry weather since April this year, and major rice exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have lowered their rice export forecasts for the year. Fitch, an international rating agency, believes that global rice production may hit a 20-year low in 2023.
Drought will not only lead to a reduction in grain production, but also provide support for a sharp increase in grain prices. Events related to bad weather have pushed up the prices of some agricultural products this year. For example, sugar and cocoa futures have risen by more than 20%. Due to the influence of feed prices, the prices of livestock such as pigs and cattle have also risen sharply, and the prices of beef products in the United States have risen by more than 30%.
The stranding of the Black Sea grain transportation agreement and the impact of extreme weather events are only the epitome of the current global food security dilemma. Fleischer, director of the Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Europe of the World Food Program, said that the world is facing the most serious food security crisis in modern times. The World Food Program predicts that in 2023, more than 345 million people in the world will be in crisis-level food insecurity, and 43 million of them will be one step away from famine. The agency provided food aid to more than 158 million people around the world last year, more than in any previous year.
The grain system needs to be transformed urgently
"The global food system ‘ Crashed ’ The disadvantaged groups have paid the price and must change the way of food production and consumption. " Guterres recently issued a warning.
The international community generally believes that the main crux of the current global food crisis lies in the unbalanced global food distribution and the huge gap between food resources in different countries and regions.
In the past few decades, nearly 80% of the world’s grain production has been concentrated in more than a dozen countries. This pattern of supply and demand, in which the exporting countries are relatively concentrated and the importing countries are relatively scattered, makes the international grain market vulnerable to epidemic situation, geographical conflicts and other factors, and increases the degree of food insecurity.
Since last year, affected by geopolitical conflicts, the turmoil in "world granaries" such as Ukraine and Russia has broken the fragile balance of the global grain supply chain; The United States has repeatedly increased sanctions against Russia by pulling its allies, which has seriously hindered the grain production and export of Russia and Ukraine and aggravated the blockage of the global grain supply chain; The world food trade giants, mainly American enterprises, manipulate international food prices and repeatedly seek huge profits by speculating on food security issues.
Under the continuous influence of multiple factors, the supply chain connecting global grain production and demand has been interrupted repeatedly, and the international cooperation mechanism to ensure the smooth supply chain has been blocked, which has caused the global grain price to soar all the way, and many countries that are highly dependent on grain imports can only "look forward to it".
Food security is not only related to food rations, but also to the development of the world economy and the stability of regional countries. According to the report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, rising global food prices have a greater impact on low-and middle-income countries, and the increase in the cost of imported energy and fertilizers may force some countries to reduce their input, which in turn will lead to a decline in agricultural productivity and a decrease in domestic food supply, which will further deepen the possibility of food and energy crises in these countries.
Faced with all kinds of severe tests, it is difficult for the existing global food system to operate reasonably and effectively, so it is imperative to promote the transformation of the food system. Recently, at the promotion meeting of the results of the United Nations food system summit, representatives from all parties called for promoting the construction of a more efficient, inclusive, resilient and sustainable food system. Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, said that the efforts to transform the global agricultural food system involve many sectors, such as agriculture, climate crisis, biodiversity, trade and nutrition. Countries should strengthen coordination, make governance processes and policies coherent and coordinated, combine short-term and long-term, and actively seek solutions.
Concerted action is imminent.
At present, the Black Sea grain transportation agreement is constantly in turmoil, further aggravating the global food security risks. In order to smooth the global grain supply chain and unblock the blocking points and breakpoints, it is urgent for all countries to work together.
It is worth noting that Russia has not completely closed the door to renew the agreement. Judging from the requirements put forward by Russia, it hopes to lift many restrictions on its banking, transportation and insurance, because this has seriously affected its trade other than grain and fertilizer. Some analysts believe that at present, it is the stage where the parties have the biggest differences since the signing of the agreement on the export of agricultural products at the Black Sea port one year ago. On the basis that there is no basic mutual trust between Russia and Ukraine or between Russia and the West, it is difficult for all parties to find a solution around their differences calmly for the time being.
The international community is trying hard to find opportunities to mediate, hoping that the renewal of the agreement on the export of agricultural products at the Black Sea port will usher in a turning point. When talking about this matter recently, Guterres said that the United Nations will continue to work to find a solution. Turkish President Erdogan also said that he will continue to save the agreement on the export of agricultural products in the Black Sea port and hopes to interview Russian President Vladimir Putin on the contents of the agreement.
Recently, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that China hopes that the package agreement on grain transportation in the Black Sea will continue to be implemented in a balanced, comprehensive and effective manner. China has put forward an international food security cooperation initiative, and is willing to strengthen communication and cooperation with all parties in this regard, promote the formation of more international consensus, and make positive contributions to ensuring world food security.
As a positive force to safeguard world food security, China put forward the "China Plan" and made the "China Action" to deal with the global food problem. In 2021, China proposed a global development initiative, which included food security in eight key areas of cooperation; In 2022, China put forward the International Food Security Cooperation Initiative, and put forward eight suggestions on establishing a cooperative partnership for commodities and safeguarding global food security, providing a "China plan" to solve the food problem.
Agricultural cooperation with more than 140 countries and regions; Popularize more than 1,000 agricultural technologies to developing countries, and drive the average yield of crops in the project area to increase by 30% to 60%; More than 14,000 hybrid rice professionals … … China has shared its development experience and applicable technology with developing countries, carried out international cooperation in a pragmatic way, and actively helped developing countries to enhance their food security.
"China’s global development initiative to include food security in key areas of cooperation is conducive to accelerating the implementation of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and is also in line with the UN’s vision of strengthening global cooperation and revitalizing multilateralism." Alice Chabanne, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, said.
To meet the challenge of global food security, big countries need to take responsibility, go hand in hand and solve difficult problems through cooperation. All parties should strengthen the supervision of multinational food and agriculture enterprises, build a more resilient and stable global food supply chain, and reduce the volatility and vulnerability of the global food system; Work together to provide global public goods, slow down the macro impact of geopolitical conflicts, extreme climate and economic recession on global food security, and promote the development of the global food security governance system in a more just and reasonable direction. As the report of the World Food Programme emphasizes, the key to the food crisis lies in "how do we take more decisive actions to strengthen our ability to resist future shocks". (Author: Sun Changyue Source: Economic Daily)