Changjiang Business News ● Changjiang Business Daily reporter Huang Cong
With the monthly sales report, Chen Hong may be on pins and needles, and Wang Xiaoqiu doesn’t know whether he is happy or sad, while SAIC has fallen into the worst performance moment in the past 10 years.
Last night, SAIC released production and sales data showing that in April 2019, SAIC sold 456,800 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 19.73%; In the first four months, the cumulative sales volume was 1.989 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%. This means that compared with 2,391,500 vehicles in 2018, SAIC’s sales in the first four months decreased by 400,000 vehicles.
According to the statistics of Changjiang Business Daily reporters, the sales of SAIC Volkswagen, Shanghai GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling have declined collectively for seven consecutive months, with SAIC-GM-Wuling having the largest decline. The data shows that the sales volume of SAIC-GM-Wuling has been declining for eight consecutive months, and 193,100 vehicles were sold less in the first four months of 2019.
Not only that, the first quarterly report of 2019 disclosed by SAIC showed that the company’s revenue fell by 16.2% and its net profit fell by 15%. This is also the biggest quarter in which SAIC’s revenue and net profit have fallen in the past 10 years since the first quarter of 2009.
At present, Wang Xiaoqiu, the general manager of SAIC Passenger Cars, is regarded as the "best successor" of Chairman Chen Hong. Wang Xiaoqiu, who has been at the helm of SAIC passenger cars for five years, is facing a "second crisis", with its investment of nearly 10.4 billion yuan in two factories or falling into a situation of "no cars to build".
The decline of SAIC’s sales volume is synchronized with the whole country.
SAIC ranks seventh in the global automobile industry and first among China automobile enterprises.
SAIC, which also held the "growth line" in 2018, has "gone with the flow" in 2019, and the speed of sales decline has exceeded industry expectations.
In the 2018 annual report, SAIC also confidently stated that in the face of the cold winter in the auto market, the Group’s vehicle sales achieved a strong contrarian trend and its business performance continued to make steady progress.
The data shows that SAIC achieved vehicle sales of 7.052 million units in 2018, up 1.8% year-on-year, 5.6 percentage points higher than the overall market growth rate. Among them, the sales of passenger cars were 6.162 million, down 0.4% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles were 889,000, up 19.8% year-on-year (general commercial vehicles excluding mini-cars increased by 22.8% year-on-year).
In 2018, SAIC’s domestic market share reached 24.1%, a significant increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year. Almost every four cars sold in the country, one belongs to SAIC.
Today, SAIC’s "sense of superiority" has disappeared.
Last night, the latest sales data released by SAIC showed that in April 2019, SAIC sold 456,800 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 19.73%. The cumulative sales volume of SAIC in the first four months was 1.989 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%. This means that compared with 2,391,500 vehicles in 2018, SAIC’s sales in the first four months decreased by 400,000 vehicles.
On May 8, the latest automobile sales data released by the Association showed that in April, the average daily retail sales of domestic passenger car manufacturers was 44,275, which is expected to drop by 18% year-on-year, and the sales volume continued to drop. The average daily wholesale sales of passenger car manufacturers was 43,763, down 22% year-on-year. From this point of view, the sales volume of SAIC has been synchronized with the whole country.
Sales of "Troika" are in a declining stage.
Poor sales directly affected the performance of SAIC.
The first quarterly report of 2019 disclosed by SAIC shows that the company’s total operating income in the first quarter of this year was about 200.19 billion yuan, down 16.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 8.25 billion yuan, down 15% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was about 7.6 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of the Changjiang Business Daily reporter, this is also the quarter in which SAIC’s revenue and net profit dropped the most in the 10 years since the first quarter of 2009.
SAIC Volkswagen, Shanghai GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling are the "Troika" of SAIC Group’s sales volume, and they are currently in the stage of collective decline.
Among them, SAIC Volkswagen sold 143,200 vehicles in April 2019, down 10.5% year-on-year; In the first four months, the cumulative sales were 611,100 vehicles, down 9.21% year-on-year. SAIC-GM sold 125,500 vehicles in April, a year-on-year decrease of 26.68%; In the first four months, the cumulative sales were 552,400 vehicles, down 16.61% year-on-year. SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 105,700 vehicles in April, down 30.78% year-on-year; In the first four months, the cumulative sales were 534,700 vehicles, down 26.53% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of Changjiang Business Daily reporters, the sales volume of "Troika" of SAIC Group has declined collectively for seven consecutive months. In the 2018 annual report, SAIC stated that it will strive to achieve 7.1 million vehicle sales in 2019. According to this goal, the sales volume of SAIC only needs to increase by 48,000 vehicles, with an increase rate of 0.68%, which is less than the actual growth rate in 2018. According to the current decline, SAIC’s annual sales of 6 million vehicles has become the most realistic goal.
Although both revenue and net profit declined, and the decline in sales also felt the market rhythm, many brokers still rated SAIC as overweight. The research report issued by Zhongtai Securities pointed out that SAIC, as a leading vehicle enterprise, has a solid position as a joint-venture brand, and its own brands have also achieved fruitful research and development and new four modernizations. With a strong spare parts supply system, the industry recovery company is expected to benefit first and be given an "overweight" rating.
SAIC-GM-Wuling sold less than 190,000 vehicles.
Among the "Troika", the decline speed of SAIC-GM-Wuling is particularly obvious.
According to the statistics of Changjiang Business Daily reporters, in the first four months, among the 10 car companies of SAIC, the sales volume of Shenwo bus dropped by 97.65%. However, the sales of Shenwo bus in the first four months were only two, which is not worth mentioning. In addition to Shenwo Bus, SAIC-GM-Wuling ranked first with a 26.53% decline, with 193,100 vehicles sold less in four months.
As the "helmsman" of SAIC-GM-Wuling, Shenyang has brought the car company into the most prosperous period since it became the general manager in 2002. In 2005, its sales exceeded 300,000 vehicles, and in 2009, it exceeded 1 million vehicles.
In 2014, Baojun brand launched Baojun 730, and SAIC-GM-Wuling began to impact the low-end passenger car market. With the continuous launch of products, new models quickly occupy the low-end car market of MPV and SUV. In 2015, the sales volume exceeded 2 million, and SAIC-GM-Wuling became a giant among car companies.
Shenyang, born in 1961, is now 58 years old and about to retire. At this time, SAIC-GM-Wuling is likely to become a regret in his career.
In 2017, the sales volume of SAIC-GM-Wuling was 2.15 million, reaching an all-time high. However, after entering 2018, the sales volume of SAIC-GM-Wuling dropped sharply, and the "halo" of many star models disappeared, and the "God Car" also showed signs of falling into the altar.
In 2018, the sales volume of SAIC-GM-Wuling was 2,071,600 units, down 3.65%. Among the Troika, the sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling declined the most.
According to the statistics of Changjiang Business Daily reporters, since July 2018, the sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling have continued to decline year-on-year, which has been declining for eight consecutive months. In the first four months of 2019, SAIC-GM-Wuling sold less than 193,100 vehicles, which became the "culprit" of the decline in sales of SAIC.
Wang Xiaoqiu, the successor, suffered a "second crisis"
Shenyang is not the only senior executive of SAIC to retire. Chairman Chen Hong and President Chen Zhixin are among them.
According to the data, Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC, was born in March 1961, and Chen Zhixin, president, was born in May 1959. According to the current retirement policy, Chen Zhixin has reached the retirement age of 60.
At present, Wang Xiaoqiu, general manager of SAIC Passenger Cars, is also regarded as the "best successor" of Guangzhou Automobile Group. Although he is a "star of tomorrow", even if Wang Xiaoqiu takes over, life is doomed to be difficult.
At the same time, Wang Xiaoqiu, who has been at the helm of SAIC passenger cars for five years, is facing a "second crisis", which is related to its blind expansion of production capacity.
According to the statistics of the Changjiang Business Daily reporter, two factories with an investment of nearly 10.4 billion yuan in SAIC passenger cars will be completed and put into operation in 2019, with an annual production capacity of 480,000 newly built vehicles. As a result, the annual production capacity of SAIC passenger cars will reach 1.16 million, which is more than 70% higher than the original level.
In the first three months of 2019, the sales volume of SAIC passenger cars continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 17.5%. Xiao Yue, an industry insider who has been engaged in automobile research for a long time, judged that the sales volume of SAIC passenger cars reached 600,000 in 2019, which became the goal of "guaranteeing the bottom". As a last resort, SAIC recently announced that it will set up a 3 billion yuan reward to support the trade-in of vehicles with emission standards of Grade III and below in Shanghai and reduce prices in disguise.
A large number of expansions have suffered a decline in sales. According to the statistics of Changjiang Business Daily, if the annual sales volume is 600,000 vehicles, in 2019, the sales volume of SAIC passenger cars will drop by 14.52% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate will be only 52%, resulting in a serious overcapacity. More seriously, the existing annual production capacity of SAIC passenger cars is 680,000, which can meet the current sales demand, while the newly-built factory may fall into a situation of "no car to build".
Xiao Yue believes that the blind expansion of production capacity of SAIC passenger cars exposes the lack of management ability of management, which in turn misjudges the market.