[Disk dynamics] Soda 2501 contract closed at 1514, -2.07% yesterday.
[Fundamental information]
By November 7, 2024, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 1,675,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons or 0.77% compared with Monday. Among them, 707,400 tons of light soda ash decreased by 0.41 million tons, and 967,600 tons of heavy soda ash increased by 16,900 tons. This week, the output of soda ash was 710,300 tons, a decrease of 0,700 tons from the previous month, or 0.10%. The output of light alkali was 292,800 tons, which was flat from the previous month. The output of heavy alkali was 417,500 tons, a decrease of 0,700 tons from the previous month.
The pressure above soda ash is obvious. From the daily production data we tracked and the just-needed balance we deduced, there is still a surplus of about 50,000-70,000 tons of soda ash per week, but the current accumulation rate seems to be less than expected, including the inventory of delivery warehouse is also in a downward trend. We believe that there should be a part of the surplus that is not reflected in the current apparent inventory, or there are some factors such as mid-stream speculation and on-the-way that make some inventory hidden, which needs further tracking. On the demand side, float and photovoltaic cold repairs are still expected, but the slope of cold repairs may gradually slow down. In terms of new production capacity, there are still 300,000 tons of Zhongtian Alkali Industry (expected in mid-November) and 1.1 million tons of Lianyungang Alkali Industry (expected in December), totaling 1.4 million tons, which still needs to be paid. Under this round of price increase, the current traders in the middle reaches are actively replenishing stocks, while the performance in the lower reaches is average, which also means that some stocks are only transferred from the upstream manufacturers to the middle reaches, and this batch of goods still needs to be digested by the market after all. Therefore, in the logic of medium and long-term fundamentals, it is difficult to reverse the situation of excess soda ash for the time being.