标签： 上海千花贵族宝贝

Investigation on the chaos of live broadcast with goods： Who is fishing in troubled waters？

　　BEIJING, Nov. 19 (Reporter Wu Tao) "It is said that Party A is the father, but in the live delivery industry, the anchor and MCN (new online celebrity economic operation mode) institutions are the fathers, and Party A is not even a grandson."

　　"Wang Han live rollover", "Li Xueqin live exposure" and "Simba was questioned to sell fake bird’s nest with goods" … … Recently, the contradiction between live broadcast anchors and merchants has become more prominent: on the one hand, live broadcast sales have been hitting record highs, and anchors have set up luxury cars and luxury homes; On the other hand, businesses are constantly screaming and being cheated, and the drama with a refund rate of 99% continues to be staged.

　　Then, who is fishing in troubled waters in the live broadcast of the feast with goods?

　　Data map. China News Service reporter Chen Yushe

　　"double 11" tore off the "underwear" with the live broadcast."

　　After "618", you have to prepare "double 11", which shows the importance of "double 11" to businesses. But some enterprises put all their eggs in one basket, happily preparing for live broadcast with goods, but sadly embarked on the road of safeguarding rights.

　　Recently, a merchant said in a circle of friends that on November 6th, the company’s store participated in a special live broadcast by Wang Han, an artist of Galaxy Stars Live Broadcasting Agency, with a broadcasting fee of 100,000 yuan. On that day, 1,323 sets were sold, and 1,012 sets were refunded, with a refund rate of 76.4%. During the live broadcast, due to a large number of multiple refund bills, it was also warned by the platform for false transactions.

　　It’s not only the host Wang Han who "overturned" the live broadcast, but also the bird’s nest that Simba, the live broadcast carrier, recently brought goods, was questioned as fake and looked like water; Li Xueqin, a popular talk show actor this year, was exposed that the live broadcast of "double 11" on a platform had 3.11 million viewers, but the real data was less than 110,000.

　　In fact, it’s not only the star network red, but also some "not bad money" big brothers will confuse the sales figures through Zhang Guan Li Dai when they bring the goods live.

　　For example, some media pointed out that Gree official micro showed on June 19th that the cumulative sales of five live broadcasts in Dong Mingzhu had exceeded 17.8 billion yuan. But in fact, on the day of "618", Dong Mingzhu only broadcast the goods for four hours, and 10.27 billion of the 17.8 billion yuan was the sales of Gree on the day of "618" for 24 hours, not the sales of Dong Mingzhu’s four-hour live broadcast.

　　The pit fee allows the anchor to make a steady profit.

　　For many disputes caused by the live broadcast of goods during the "double 11", Simba chose to recuperate; Li Xueqin participated in one activity after another, and the latest one was to attend an activity of Didi; Wang Han didn’t respond positively. He participated in the program "On the Stage! Dunhuang will be broadcast. The parties seem as if nothing had happened.

　　Galaxy Stars responded to "Wang Han Live Rollover with Goods". screenshot

　　However, Wang Han’s signing party, Galaxy Zhongxing, responded. Galaxy Zhongxing said, "This is fake". The company does not have any fictitious data or purchase traffic, but only helps the e-commerce platform account to do a live broadcast execution, and there is no need to brush the bill.

　　Is it really unnecessary? In the eyes of some people in the industry, if only a few people watch a celebrity live broadcast with goods, the input and output are seriously disproportionate, I believe no one will throw money at him or her next time.

　　According to the reporter of Zhongxin. com, celebrity live broadcasts now generally have pit fees, ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan. According to the data disclosed by media reports, the merchants who exposed the above-mentioned live broadcast in Wang Han paid a pit fee of 100,000 yuan (broadcast fee).

　　Screenshot of a self-service order brushing platform.

　　Some insiders pointed out that some MCN organizations or anchors will deliberately create sales and create a feeling of "bringing goods very much", and then they will have to pay for the pit, and some even specialize in "killing young business". "In recent years, MCN institutions have developed morbidly."

　　"This is a sure-fire business." For example, the pit fee is 100,000 yuan. If there are 10 brands on the spot, the pit fee will total 1 million yuan regardless of product sales. At the same time, the cost of brushing the bill is extremely low, and the anchor or MCN organization can achieve "drought and flood protection".

　　Watching the live broadcast with you may all be robots.

　　According to a survey conducted by a reporter from Zhongxin. com, you can brush 100 "machine powders" to watch data in the live broadcast of Tik Tok for up to 2 hours only by spending 70 yuan. In Taobao live broadcast, 120 yuan can buy 10,000 pieces of machine powder to watch the data.

　　There is also cheaper. A brush supplier contacted by Zhongxin.com reporter introduced that 10 yuan can buy 20,000 plays +88 real people like it; 158 yuan can have 1580 real likes+150,000 plays +180 reposts +68 real comments. Packages are available at all price points.

　　Quotation list (part) provided by a brush supplier.

　　According to media exposure, in the above-mentioned live broadcast in Li Xueqin, most of the comments of the "fans" who interacted with Li Xueqin in the comment area were made by machines.

　　Why does Party A still do live broadcast with goods?Stupid??

　　It is not difficult to find that in order to reap the dividends of live broadcast, some anchors and MCN institutions are doing everything they can, but the problem is coming? Are merchants so stupid and willing to be slaughtered lambs?

　　Chen Yuan (pseudonym), the person in charge of the live broadcast of a jewelry chain brand, told the reporter of Zhongxin.com that during the epidemic, the offline stores of their brands were greatly affected, and the company closed almost 20% of the stores. There was no other way out, only the online impact.

　　"Why did you choose live delivery? Because in the first half of this year, including Taobao live broadcast, it gave a lot of free traffic. And if you open an online shop, on Taobao, the traffic is very expensive, and you can’t afford to play according to the development model of ordinary advertising. Free traffic is an opportunity. "

　　The promotional video uploaded by users on the platform of Little Red Book. screenshot

　　However, with the development of live delivery, the traffic strategy of the platform is also changing. "Taobao live broadcast traffic is concentrated in the head. Tik Tok is more about supporting waist anchors and even amateur live broadcasts. It is not allowed for head anchors to control traffic all the time." Chen Yuan said.

　　That’s why some online celebrity’s last live broadcast burst into "I buy karma", and the next one will be "karma" directly. This is related to the influence of different strategies of the live broadcast platform.

　　"The company has this budget. In the original offline store, the annual rent of a store ranged from hundreds of thousands to millions of yuan. After closing the store, the money was saved." Chen Yuan said that the company is in the experimental stage anyway, or it is a kind of "conformity" mentality. When you pass by the street, it is difficult for you to control your eyes when others are looking up at the sky.

　　Live broadcast with goods revenue model or welcome change

　　Can the false prosperity supported by the brush list last long? The answer is obviously no. The reporter noticed that at present, some merchants have asked MCN organizations or anchors to cooperate in the drawing mode, that is, how many goods are sold to draw.

　　Screenshot of the report released by KPMG and Ali Research Institute.

　　A report jointly issued by KPMG and Ali Research Institute pointed out that due to the popularity of the live broadcast format and the relatively low barriers to entry, in recent years, there have been repeated negative news such as false propaganda of anchors and falsification of live broadcast data, which invisibly consumes consumers’ trust.

　　"However, the overall development of the live broadcast industry is improving." The above report predicts that the overall scale of live broadcast e-commerce will reach 1.05 trillion yuan in 2020, with a penetration rate of 8.6%; In 2021, the scale will be close to 2 trillion yuan and the penetration rate will reach 14.3%.

　　The live broadcast industry has also been exploring other revenue models. Zhang Chaoyang, Chairman and CEO of Sohu’s Board of Directors, recently said, "We turned the live broadcast into a live variety show to carry out new marketing activities, which attracted the attention of advertisers, so our brand advertising achieved an 8% growth in the third quarter."

　　Screenshot of official website of National Network Information Office.

　　Moreover, strict supervision is coming. On November 13, the National Internet Information Office publicly solicited opinions on the "Regulations on the Management of Internet Live Marketing Information Content Services (Draft for Comment)", and it is proposed that the operators of live broadcast rooms and live broadcast marketers should not publish false information to deceive or mislead users; Do not fabricate or tamper with data traffic fraud such as attention, page views, likes, and transaction volume.

　　Have you ever participated in live shopping? What do you think of the chaos of live shopping?

Strong stocks, Huawei’s automobile chain rose against the trend! The company rose 161% in the past 33 trading days, and the number of new models exceeded expectations. Huawei was deeply involved in th

　　On October 18th, the three major indexes of A shares fell collectively.Down 0.8%,It fell by 1.24%.Down 1.2%.

　　From the plate,The industrial chain has risen against the market. Wind data shows that the index rose by 1.29%,、、、Daily limit,、、、Up more than 4%,、Wait for multiple shares to follow up.

　　For the automotive sector,Dongguanpoint out, the new force car companies headed byOrders grew rapidly during the National Day holiday, and the market fever is expected to continue., or it will drive the automobile consumption at the end of the year to consolidate the realization of the steady growth goal of the automobile industry throughout the year.

　　Huawei automobile industry chainAmong the stocks, these twoCar companies have seen a large increase recently. At the same time, the landing of new products is expected to bring a new round of volume cycle:

  • In the past 33 trading days, it rose by 161%, and the number of new models of the company exceeded expectations. The model platform, intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving flagship with Huawei’s deep participation may be listed in December, and it is expected to start a new round of loading cycle under the catalysis of channels and products.

  • In the past five days, the cumulative increase of the company has exceeded 21%, and the transformation is getting better and better. In September, the automobile sales volume improved to a great extent, the export momentum was steady, and the overseas strategic development was accelerated. The continuous new car cycle is expected to promote the company’s sales andImprove.

　　1、（601127.SH）

　　(1) Recent market conditions

　　On October 18, A shares closed.（601127.SH）The daily limit is 85.91 yuan. The turnover on that day exceeded 9.8 billion yuan, ranking first in A shares. Since August 25th, the stock has soared.As of the close of 18th, the stock rose as high as 161.20%..

　　According to the company official website, Sailis is a technology-based manufacturing enterprise with automobile as its core business, and its business involves new energy vehicles and core three power plants (, electric drive, electronic control), research and development, manufacturing, sales and service of traditional automobile and core component assemblies.

　　thinkThe company and Huawei have deep cooperation in the intelligent selection mode to build a brand in the world, and it is expected to start a new round of volume cycle under the multi-point catalysis of channels and products.

　　(2) investment points (、(Hong Kong), etc.)

　　(1) The number of new M7 orders in the world exceeded expectations.

　　A few days ago, ask the world, from September 12th to October 6th,The new M7 in Wenjie will exceed 50,000 sets.On October 6, the single-day big decision exceeded 7,000 vehicles.Set another one-day record.

　　From the functional point of view, M7 is equipped with HarmonyOS Intelligent Cockpit 3.0 system, which has massive applications, seamless switching of mobile phones to cars, ecological sharing and voice interactive upgrade experience. In addition, Wenjie M7 is equipped with Huawei ADS Advanced Intelligent Driving 2.0, which is infinitely close to L3 intelligent driving experience.

　　(Hong Kong) thinksHarmonyOS’s increasingly perfect ecology has gradually reflected the promotion of cross-border orders.It is expected to drive the sales volume of the industry to bottom out.. With the strong R&D support of Huawei,The safety and practicability of assisted driving technology will quickly enter the first echelon in China.Regional coverage and vehicle application are expected to continue to develop.

　　② The M9 is expected to be listed in December.

　　In order to seize the "Golden September and Silver 10" consumption peak season, the pace of major brands announcing the launch of new cars has obviously accelerated.According to the 375th batch of Announcement of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, M9 and M9EV are listed..

　　The new car is based on the newly built D-class.The SUV platform will be equipped with all-aluminum chassis, intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving, Huawei megapixel smart headlights and Huawei A.UD, Huawei AI big model, etc.

　　The pre-sale price range of AITO bound M9 is 500,000-600,000 yuan, which is compared with the standard Mercedes-Benz GLS and the ideal L9.It is expected to be officially listed in December 2023..

(Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology website)

　　point outThe M9 represents a new round of cooperation between Huawei and Celeste in car selection business (China is the first deeply involved vehicle platform, intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving flagship configuration).It is expected to continue to enhance the brand power of AITO..

　　③ Binding Huawei+independent breakthrough and waiting for the transformation effect.

　　1) Cooperation.：

  • In order to further improve the management efficiency/decision-making response speed, in July 2023, the company and Huawei set up the "AITO Joint Working Group on Marketing and Service", and the cooperation will not only be limited to the front end of sales, but also open to the after-sales to achieve end-to-end closed-loop cooperation management.

  • Huawei empowers the Cyrus brand in products and channels, and the vehicles in the border area are equipped with intelligent configurations such as HarmonyOS car system and HUAWEIADS advanced intelligent driving system, and are sold by online Huawei Mall and a large number of offline stores, which has strong competitiveness.

　　2) Autonomy：

  • Focusing on system architecture construction, the company has built a number of key platforms, such as Rubik’s Cube Platform and Cloud Sea Architecture. In the first half of 2023, the company added 315 authorized patents and 1,058 new patent applications.

  • estimateIn 2023, Sellers sold 85,000 vehicles, up 6% year-on-year, among which the sales of M5 and M7 models were 45,000 and 40,000; In 2024, Sailis sold 255,000 vehicles, up 200% year-on-year, among which the sales of M5, M7 and M9 vehicles were 7.5, 11 and 70,000 vehicles.

　　：

　　point outThe Celestial brand that the company cooperated with Huawei has won strong market response and good product reputation.With the introduction of new M7 and M9, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be greatly improved.. It is estimated that the company’s revenue will increase by -20%, 233.1% and 30.5% from 2023 to 2025. GuimuIt is estimated that it will turn losses into profits in 2025.

(Source:)

　　At the same time, Cinda also suggested the following risks: car sales are less than expected, competition in the auto industry is intensifying, raw material prices fluctuate, and the launch progress of new models is less than expected.

　　2、（601633.SH）

　　(1) Recent market conditions

　　On October 18th, A shares closed up 3.72% to 30.98 yuan.The company’s share price rose for five consecutive days (October 12-October 18), with a cumulative increase of 21.11%..

　　Official website shows that the company’s business includes automobile and parts design, research and development, production, sales and service, and it owns Haval, Wei Brand, Euler, Tank and Great Wall pickup truck.

　　Recently,Release September production and sales express. The announcement shows thatIn September, the company sold a total of 121,632 vehicles, an increase of 29.89% over the same period last year; The output was 137,870 vehicles, an increase of 33.49% over the same period last year..

　　thinkThe company’s car sales in September improved to a great extent. Considering the bright performance of some new cars on sale,Looking forward to the continuous heavy volume in October..

　　expressIn the short and medium term, the company is determined to transform new energy.The continuous new car cycle is expected to promote the company’s sales and performance improvement.In the long run, the company’s four expansion strategies open up the long-term growth space of sales volume, and intelligent transformation opens up the profit space of the whole industry chain.

　　(2) Investment Points (,)

　　① New energy transformation is getting better and better.

　　In July 2020, the company proposed to transform into a global technology travel company. By the end of 2022, four business segments were formed, namely, Euler+Salon, Tank+Weipai, Haval and Great Wall pickup truck. The development strategy of hybrid, pure electricity and hydrogen energy in parallel has been established, and the whole industrial chain layout has been carried out in the fields of intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and intelligent chassis.

　　Recently, President Feng Mu said in an interview during the Chengdu International Auto Show,It took the company three years to complete the electric transformation, and it will take another 2-3 years to complete the intelligent transformation..

　　According to the company’s production and sales data in September,Type-B sales continued to increase.In September, it sold 21,900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 111.23%. In the third quarter of this year, the company sold 77,121 vehicles, a year-on-year surge of 131.41%, and the company’s intelligent new energy achievements appeared.

　　Currently,Many new products of the company are ready to go.The focus is on inserting the mixed track, and the new car is clearly positioned. It is estimated that more than 10 intelligent new energy products will be launched in 2023. Many new energy vehicles such as Haval brand second-generation big dog, Xiaolong series, Raptor and H5, WEY brand Blue Mountain, Gaoshan, tank brand 300PHEV/500PHEV/400/700, and Euler and Salon brands are expected to make important contributions in the future.

　　② The export momentum is steady, and the overseas strategic development is accelerated.

　　According to the production and sales express in September, the company exported 30,018 vehicles in September, up 4.56% year-on-year, accounting for 24.7% of the group’s sales, and the export volume exceeded 30,000 vehicles for two consecutive months. From January to September, Great Wall Motor sold a total of 211,696 vehicles overseas, up +89.45% year-on-year.The company’s overseas export momentum is steady.. In the first three quarters, Great Wall Motor’s overseas sales accounted for 23.63%, 24.04% and 25.45%,In a sustained growth trend..

　　The company’s global layout is leading, with differentiated layout in Europe, South Asia, ASEAN, Latin America and other markets, and the pace of independent brands going out to sea is accelerated in an all-round way.Specifically:

  • Haval H6, Haval JOLION, Haval Big Dog, Euler Good Cat, Tank 300, Great Wall Gun and other models have been listed in Cambodia, Vietnam, Brazil and other places, helping global sales to continue to climb.

  • The star single product tank 500 has been listed in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and other places, and continues to explore the Middle East market.

  • The company formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement with ADM automobile factory of Uzbekistan automobile group on Uzbekistan market development cooperation, and a Great Wall strategy is accelerating.

　　Performance forecast:

　　Maintain the profit forecast, which is expected to be realized in 2023-2025.They were 1,742.30, 2,123.43 and 251.313 billion yuan respectively, up by 26.86%, 21.88% and 18.35% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 66.06, 87.12 and 11.210 billion yuan, up by -20.08%, 31.88% and 28.67.

(Source: Founder)

　　At the same time, Founder Securities also suggested the following risks: the sales of new energy vehicles were less than expected; The launch of new models is less than expected; Gross profit is damaged under the price war; Car exports fell short of expectations.

　　(The content of this article from licensed securities institutions does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it represent the platform’s point of view. Investors are requested to make independent judgments and decisions. )